Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FE 0xfe3a…056f crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-3%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$433
other 16% −$106
sports 11% −$54
world 6% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 43% -19.0%
≤30d 23 -13.4% -21.7% 39% 39% -25.4%
≤90d 30 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 40% -22.0%
all 30 -10.8% -19.3% 43% 40% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -22.0%
10% -27.0% 37% -29.5%
15% -34.1% 33% -36.3%
20% -40.5% 27% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$111 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage35d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $207 +$210 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $128 +$55 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $282 +$157 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $181 +$178 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $307 +$137 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $79 +$184 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$26 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $209 −$150 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $110 −$105 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $137 +$106 +77%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $291 +$46 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $154 −$125 -81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $46 +$25 +53%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $72 +$145 +201%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $44 −$17 -39%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $84 −$82 -97%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.53 · official $409.53 (match) · 80 history records