Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FE 0xfe37…911d sports 525 markets active 10h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$461 (+1%) realized +$461 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%372W / 153L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$132
14 days−$95
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$381
other 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 42% -12.3%
≤30d 352 +5.0% -5.0% 67% 42% -9.3%
≤90d 525 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 44% -8.4%
all 525 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 44% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 44% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 23% -17.2%
15% -22.3% 13% -25.2%
20% -30.0% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses372 / 153
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions0
Markets (closed)525 / 525
History coverage42d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 525 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$6 -6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -47%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $44 +$6 +13%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $9 +$2 +23%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $26 +$1 +6%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $90 −$17 -19%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $22 +$8 +36%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $18 −$9 -48%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $89 +$3 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $95 +$4 +4%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $11 +$9 +83%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $17 +$3 +19%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $39 +$6 +16%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $22 −$12 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $23 +$7 +30%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$8 +98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $22 −$6 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$4 -20%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $29 −$12 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +211%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$14 -14%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $12 +$7 +58%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $6 −$3 -52%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $30 +$9 +30%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $20 −$9 -46%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $17 −$2 -10%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $14 +$5 +33%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $17 +$3 +19%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $21 +$19 +92%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $91 +$7 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $33 +$6 +19%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $21 −$6 -27%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $30 −$15 -51%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $81 −$14 -17%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $14 −$11 -78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $64 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 99¢ $50 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 83¢ $8 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 89¢ $23 11h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 89¢ $13 11h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $11 12h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 45¢ $9 13h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 97¢ $19 13h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 99¢ $30 13h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 69¢ $7 13h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 69¢ $7 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 13h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 39¢ $8 14h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 87¢ $26 14h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 59¢ $12 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 74¢ $73 15h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic SELL Antonia Ruzic $0 15h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $30 16h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $5 16h
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 35¢ $2 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 90¢ $90 17h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 31¢ $9 17h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 73¢ $22 17h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 58¢ $18 18h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 92¢ $92 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2275 history records