Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe36…5cea sports 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,149 (-34%) realized −$2,151 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%174W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,210
other 7% −$23
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +20.0% +8.6% 54% 54% +31.5%
≤30d 312 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 52% -38.0%
≤90d 333 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 52% -41.3%
all 333 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 52% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 52% -41.3%
10% -15.8% 49% -46.9%
15% -23.9% 43% -52.1%
20% -31.4% 39% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2,151
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses174 / 159
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions9
Markets (closed)333 / 342
History coverage32d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 55¢ 34¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-37%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 63¢ 78¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -70%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 +$11 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 +$12 +179%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +93%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$63 +244%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $11 +$39 +362%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $1 +$2 +188%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $8 +$1 +14%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $3 +$3 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3 +$5 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $2 9m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $1 10m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $1 16m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $1 18m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $6 19m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $1 20m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $2 21m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $2 21m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $3 41m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 57¢ $1 49m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 57¢ $1 49m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $1 49m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $3 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $1 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $1 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $7 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $4 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $1 10h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $16 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 84¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $35.65 (match) · 995 history records