Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe35…053f crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$140 (+14%) realized +$141 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 13% -10.1%
≤30d 45 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 13% -10.1%
≤90d 45 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 13% -10.1%
all 45 -13.5% -21.7% 22% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 13% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 11% -18.7%
15% -36.0% 9% -26.5%
20% -42.3% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$9 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$141
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $94 −$60 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $94 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$24 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $160 −$33 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $63 −$29 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$241 +1537%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.14 · official $19.14 (match) · 201 history records