Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe31…1f92
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage460d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 2 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $7 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $80 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $66 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $37 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Dec 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday? Apr 09 $12 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $16 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% $0
other 26% −$6
crypto 5% +$3
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 31¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $22 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $4 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $34 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $18 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 25% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 10% -9.5%
all 32 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.49 · official $48.14 (match) · 100 history records