Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe2b…da6f politics 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$4
other 31% −$4
sports 18% −$4
culture 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -24.8% -32.0% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 88 -13.5% -21.7% 11% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 1% -9.8%
10% -29.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -36.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -42.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage375d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 21 $57 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $1 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? Jan 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 28 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $66 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? Jan 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $2 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $2 $0 -17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $1 $0 -51%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $62 $0 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $2 $0 -11%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $59 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 04 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $57 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $57 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $57 116d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 119d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 127d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 136d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 136d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 140d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 140d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 143d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? BUY No 100¢ $55 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 145d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 145d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $56 145d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 146d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 146d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $55 148d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 149d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.63 · official $56.63 (match) · 402 history records