Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe2b…51de sports 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$355 (-2%) realized −$354 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%224W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$335
14 days+$446
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$671
other 6% +$10
crypto 5% +$28
economics 5% +$4
tech 0% −$31
world 0% −$41
culture 0% −$18
politics 0% +$14
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +10.0% -0.4% 58% 57% +1.8%
≤30d 179 +1.7% -7.9% 54% 51% -2.4%
≤90d 463 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 43% -13.1%
all 506 -9.5% -18.2% 44% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 41% -13.1%
10% -26.0% 39% -21.4%
15% -33.1% 32% -29.0%
20% -39.7% 26% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$354
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses224 / 282
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions6
Markets (closed)506 / 513
History coverage140d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ 56¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $40 −$6 -15%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $41 +$25 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$49 +80%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $27 +$25 +93%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$10 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $833 +$11 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$30 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$48 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 +$44 +135%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 +$41 +238%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$76 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$27 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 +$25 +176%
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$29 +71%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$33 +132%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 +$26 +86%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$14 +68%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +66%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 +$32 +60%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$16 +32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $25 +$24 +93%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $260 +$65 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $32 −$32 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $20 +$12 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $10 36m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 36m
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $10 37m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $20 37m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $34 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $66 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 60¢ $26 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $20 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $6 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $10 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $40 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $27 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes $53 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $3 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $41 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 14h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 14h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 54¢ $20 14h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 88¢ $36 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $34 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $40 28h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $20 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $20 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.11 · official $187.11 (match) · 1345 history records