Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe2b…5d63 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+4%) realized +$66 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$2
other 6% +$9
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.3% -4.8% 61% 54% +12.8%
≤30d 28 +5.3% -4.8% 61% 54% +12.8%
≤90d 28 +5.3% -4.8% 61% 54% +12.8%
all 28 +5.3% -4.8% 61% 54% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 54% +12.8%
10% -13.9% 54% +2.0%
15% -22.2% 43% -7.8%
20% -29.8% 29% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 18¢ $58 $20 −$38 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $44 +$14 +32%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $31 +$13 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $88 −$19 -22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $68 −$17 -25%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $139 −$94 -68%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $150 +$67 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$43 +145%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$6 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $3 −$2 -69%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +137%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 +$7 +72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 +$6 +45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$4 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $58 30m
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 58m
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 75¢ $44 1h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $1 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 34¢ $51 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $68 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 77¢ $68 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $67 6h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $67 7h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Under 84¢ $16 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over $7 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $34 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $139 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $78 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $78 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $29 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $29 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 11¢ $1 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.86 · official $25.76 · 66 history records