Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe27…c9a5 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,757 (-9%) realized −$1,373 · open −$384
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$3,086now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$882
7 days−$1,271
14 days−$1,322
30 days−$1,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,170
sports 43% −$915
crypto 2% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -44.2% -49.5% 29% 29% -64.2%
≤30d 34 -13.8% -22.0% 56% 53% -26.7%
≤90d 76 -16.2% -24.2% 54% 45% -26.3%
all 102 -5.1% -14.2% 61% 47% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 47% -17.8%
10% -22.4% 34% -25.7%
15% -29.9% 21% -32.9%
20% -36.8% 15% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$73 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3,086
Realized−$1,373
Unrealized−$384
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions10
Markets (closed)102 / 112
History coverage135d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $414 $712 +$298 (+72%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $638 $547 −$90 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $385 $544 +$159 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $442 $455 +$13 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $499 $412 −$87 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $385 $202 −$183 (-48%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $440 $140 −$300 (-68%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $236 $32 −$203 (-86%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 41¢ 76¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 −$23 -45%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$21 +27%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $491 −$491 -100%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $102 −$84 -83%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $308 −$191 -62%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $412 −$133 -32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$32 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$43 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $279 +$67 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$43 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $302 −$114 -38%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $302 +$64 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $300 +$40 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,003 −$707 -70%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $56 −$23 -42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $48 +$7 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $854 +$169 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $572 +$311 +54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $22 +$19 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $20 +$10 +48%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $81 −$33 -40%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $76 +$24 +32%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $70 +$6 +8%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $65 +$5 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $37 +$27 +73%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $44 −$13 -30%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $30 −$5 -17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Rayo Vallecano reach the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinal? Apr 16 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-03-31? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $23 46m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 47m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Qatar 75¢ $50 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 27h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 2d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes $17 2d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $116 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $107 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $308 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $279 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $656 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $155 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $101 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $301 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $344 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $279 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 82¢ $201 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,085.98 · official $3,086.10 (match) · 278 history records