Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe22…c328 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%16W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2
other 24% −$3
politics 16% −$2
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$3
world 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 192 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses16 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage169d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $367 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $255 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $133 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $143 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $139 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 8h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $33 11d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $33 11d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $33 25d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $34 25d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 32d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 33d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 105d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 105d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $44 105d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $45 106d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $41 114d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $41 114d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $41 114d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $41 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $41 114d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $41 114d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $45 114d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $45 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 114d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $41 114d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $41 114d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $42 114d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $42 114d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $41 114d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $41 114d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $48 114d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $48 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 740 history records