Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FE
0xfe21…3769
weather · 8 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$2 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 59¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 62% $0
crypto 38% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +64.0% +48.4% 67% 67% +48.3%
≤30d 3 +64.0% +48.4% 67% 67% +48.3%
≤90d 3 +64.0% +48.4% 67% 67% +48.3%
all 3 +64.0% +48.4% 67% 67% +48.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.4% 67% +48.3%
10% +34.2% 67% +34.1%
15% +21.2% 67% +21.2%
20% +9.4% 67% +9.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.55 · official $4.51 (match) · 12 history records