Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FE 0xfe20…e977 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%85W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$19
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 2% -10.6%
≤30d 87 +2.2% -7.6% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 87 +2.2% -7.6% 98% 1% -9.2%
all 87 +2.2% -7.6% 98% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 1% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses85 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage10d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $69 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $67 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $65 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $64 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $59 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $44 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $39 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $37 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $34 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $44 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records