Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe1f…c113 world 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$127 (-1%) realized −$111 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,158
7 days−$2,756
14 days−$2,339
30 days−$1,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$63
sports 15% −$83
other 9% +$72
crypto 7% −$87
politics 4% −$16
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -57.1% -61.2% 16% 12% -60.6%
≤30d 42 -16.7% -24.6% 31% 29% -35.4%
≤90d 44 -19.2% -26.9% 30% 27% -36.4%
all 65 -2.8% -12.1% 35% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 31% -11.2%
10% -20.5% 29% -19.7%
15% -28.2% 29% -27.5%
20% -35.2% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$97 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 42
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 76
History coverage157d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $143 −$6 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 17 $205 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Toumani Camara: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 16 $123 −$30 -24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 16 $200 −$96 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $350 −$194 -55%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 7, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 16 $2,200 −$1,729 -79%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $61 +$110 +179%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $223 +$177 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $136 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $78 +$222 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $129 +$117 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$115 +115%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$92 +180%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 +$198 +194%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $380 +$172 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$138 +138%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $104 +$267 +257%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $300 −$256 -86%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $16 −$13 -79%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Mar 22 $165 −$110 -67%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $19 −$14 -72%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? Mar 12 $49 +$18 +37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 12 $80 −$1 -1%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Mar 12 $47 −$34 -73%
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Mar 12 $23 +$77 +335%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 06 $58 −$8 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 0m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 32m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $133 51m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $123 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 5¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a BUY 10¢ $15 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 44¢ $51 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 15¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 28¢ $153 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $51 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $171 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.71 · official $86.61 · 242 history records