trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 05 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will India invade Pakistan before July? | May 25 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | May 24 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 21 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the | May 21 | $12 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | May 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? | May 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? | May 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | May 10 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? | May 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th | May 08 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | May 07 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | May 07 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | May 07 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | May 06 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 06 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 0% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 14% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 14% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 27 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.3% |