Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe1d…5a9c world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$1
politics 19% −$1
other 12% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 41 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage268d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $59 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $67 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Dec 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 12 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $1 $0 +10%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $3 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Sep 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $28 42m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $28 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $17 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.92 · official $0.92 (match) · 141 history records