Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe1c…02bb crypto 241 markets active 3h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,748 (-39%) realized −$13,815 · open −$933
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%133W / 106L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$21,063
14 days−$20,943
30 days−$13,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$14,555
crypto 10% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -66.8% -70.0% 11% 11% -99.6%
≤30d 239 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 45% -44.2%
≤90d 239 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 45% -44.2%
all 239 -8.7% -17.4% 56% 45% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 45% -44.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 31% -49.6%
15% -32.5% 20% -54.4%
20% -39.2% 13% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$206 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$962
Realized−$13,815
Unrealized−$933
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses133 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)239 / 241
History coverage23d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,795 $946 −$848 (-47%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 6¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9,040 −$9,040 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $450 +$125 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $6,058 +$6,025 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,844 +$1,238 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $21 −$9 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $200 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $95 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $100 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1,000 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $92 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $5,000 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $5,000 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $100 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $1,000 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $100 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 57¢ $500 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $500 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $1,000 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $4,990 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $575 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.99 · official $961.99 (match) · 485 history records