Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FE 0xfe1c…436c other 18 markets active 3h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15,969 (+13%) realized +$16,352 · open −$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$6,620per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$413est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$39,613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16,347
14 days+$16,347
30 days+$16,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$11,179
sports 20% +$4,213
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.4% +18.0% 60% 60% +21.0%
≤30d 5 +30.4% +18.0% 60% 60% +21.0%
≤90d 5 +30.4% +18.0% 60% 60% +21.0%
all 16 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 19% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 19% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 19% -1.7%
15% -53.1% 19% -11.2%
20% -57.7% 12% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6,596 vs −$986 · ×6.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$39,613
Realized+$16,352
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$413
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage119d
Avg bet$6,620
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20,000 $19,825 −$175 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $19,997 $19,788 −$208 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $3,064 +$7,165 +234%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10,126 +$7,115 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25,247 +$12,066 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7,168 −$7,000 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,055 −$3,000 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 21 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $27,143 +$36 +0%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $143 −$86 -60%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $17 −$13 -74%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $60 −$33 -56%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $143 −$73 -51%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $397 −$120 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7,946 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12,620 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $4,997 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15,509 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,048 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $15,148 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5,120 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10,099 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10,126 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3,055 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,064 2d
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 100¢ $27,143 117d
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 117d
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 118d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 118d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 118d
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 118d
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 118d
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 118d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 7¢ $241 118d
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 118d
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 118d
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 3¢ $62 118d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 2¢ $35 118d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 118d
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 118d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 118d
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 2¢ $205 118d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 118d
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,612.85 · official $39,612.85 (match) · 52 history records