Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe1c…4a68 crypto 1017 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate85%864W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day144.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$94
14 days−$117
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -3.6% -12.7% 86% 22% -10.4%
≤30d 1016 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 18% -10.3%
≤90d 1016 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 18% -10.3%
all 1016 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 18% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 18% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 3% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses864 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1016 / 1017
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day144.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1016 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 94¢ 92¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $251 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $264 +$20 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $242 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $242 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $317 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $227 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $242 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $264 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $96 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $113 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $48 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $251 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $264 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $242 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $48 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $48 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $48 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $48 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $48 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $52 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.10 · official $6.48 · 3500 history records