Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe1b…3e49 crypto 1281 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-4%) realized −$477 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate64%820W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days−$86
14 days−$634
30 days−$603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$210
weather 14% −$279
other 11% −$89
finance 1% +$11
world 1% +$9
politics 1% +$6
culture 1% +$5
tech 1% −$11
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.1% -43.1% 25% 25% -42.7%
≤30d 625 -6.3% -15.2% 79% 40% -16.8%
≤90d 1279 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 37% -13.5%
all 1279 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 37% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 20% -21.8%
15% -31.6% 16% -29.3%
20% -38.3% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses820 / 459
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1279 / 1281
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 36¢ 33¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$89 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $48 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 +$71 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $49 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $69 +$59 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $36 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 10d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 42¢ $55 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 11d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 52¢ $69 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 11d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 12d
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.97 · official $97.97 (match) · 3500 history records