Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe16…5fa2 sports 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$352 (-2%) realized −$352 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%130W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$388
other 1% −$38
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +18.9% +7.6% 67% 67% +10.3%
≤90d 261 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 48% -12.2%
all 261 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -12.2%
10% -24.5% 41% -20.6%
15% -31.8% 37% -28.3%
20% -38.5% 31% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$35 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses130 / 131
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage87d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $72 $72 −$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Over 56¢ 56¢ $47 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Centurion 2: Filip Peliwo vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 03 $34 +$16 +46%
Makarska: Ana Konjuh vs Dominika Salkova Jun 03 $64 +$9 +14%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Jun 02 $13 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O Apr 28 $109 −$109 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Laval Rocket Apr 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs insane players (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Apr 27 $104 −$4 -3%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 24 $418 +$129 +31%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - Prime Leagu Apr 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 22 $1,457 −$278 -19%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Apr 22 $92 −$3 -3%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 21 $480 +$152 +32%
Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $119 −$119 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Apr 21 $173 −$6 -3%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 16 $92 −$3 -3%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Apr 16 $92 −$5 -5%
Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $44 +$35 +79%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South America Apr 16 $224 −$33 -15%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Challe Apr 16 $269 +$151 +56%
Counter-Strike: Crashers vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Ch Apr 13 $229 −$57 -25%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Apr 13 $284 −$34 -12%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 13 $181 +$331 +183%
Counter-Strike: regain vs InControl (BO3) - CCT North America Series # Apr 08 $126 −$19 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Charles Radtke vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Main Apr 08 $172 −$7 -4%
Spread: Clippers (-11.5) Apr 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 06 $92 −$92 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tommy Pa Apr 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 06 $73 +$82 +113%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 06 $79 +$83 +105%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals Apr 06 $107 +$63 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Gatto vs. Dione Barbosa (Women's Flyweight, P Apr 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Madison Keys vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 05 $118 −$118 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 05 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 05 $117 +$44 +38%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group O Apr 04 $101 +$68 +67%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5 Apr 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 04 $75 −$75 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5 Apr 04 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 04 $87 −$6 -7%
Spread: Celtics (-17.5) Apr 04 $83 +$72 +86%
Valorant: TYLOO vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 04 $117 +$51 +44%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 04 $76 +$94 +122%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Skele (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Apr 03 $31 +$12 +38%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 03 $72 +$59 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challen Apr 03 $133 +$39 +29%
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5) Apr 03 $89 +$86 +97%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 02 $100 −$41 -41%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 02 $91 −$18 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $74 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $48 7h
Makarska: Ana Konjuh vs Dominika Salkova BUY Dominika Salkova 87¢ $64 17d
Centurion 2: Filip Peliwo vs Eliakim Coulibaly BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 68¢ $34 18d
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Yasutaka Uchiyama BUY Liam Draxl 51¢ $13 18d
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Laval Rocket BUY Toronto Marlies 43¢ $9 52d
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - Conquest of Prague O BUY MOUZ NXT 50¢ $109 53d
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs insane players (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea BUY insane players 51¢ $104 53d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 60¢ $190 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 62¢ $100 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 62¢ $100 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 62¢ $183 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 61¢ $159 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 61¢ $180 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 61¢ $108 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 61¢ $118 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 61¢ $118 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 62¢ $93 58d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger BUY Aurora Young Blood 60¢ $108 58d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - Prime Leagu BUY Eintracht Frankfurt 43¢ $82 58d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $343 58d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $75 58d
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A BUY 1win 76¢ $475 58d
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A BUY 1win 76¢ $5 59d
Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $119 59d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $92 63d
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Over 50¢ $89 63d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 49¢ $87 63d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $92 63d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $92 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.37 · official $119.37 (match) · 688 history records