Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe15…80b5 sports 603 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,046 (+1%) realized +$18,045 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%598W / 4L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,005per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$719est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 9% -6.6%
≤30d 101 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 4% -14.5%
≤90d 519 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 2% -9.6%
all 602 +1.6% -8.1% 99% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 2% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 1% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$6,289 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$18,045
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses598 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$719
Open positions1
Markets (closed)602 / 603
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$2,005
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Ivory 99¢ 100¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $259 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $321 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $211 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $459 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $146 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $768 +$8 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $1,200 +$12 +1%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6,804 +$66 +1%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15,686 +$301 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $581 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $85 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3,814 +$186 +5%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $3,334 +$666 +20%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $1,290 +$16 +1%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$5 +6%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $750 +$8 +1%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,479 +$35 +1%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $58 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $834 +$166 +20%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory (BO3) - The International Southeast Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $104 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $523 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $879 +$9 +1%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $974 +$26 +3%
Dota 2: NGNB vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs cincai team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 07 $119 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $16,640 +$594 +4%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $508 +$5 +1%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 07 $1,510 +$14 +1%
Dota 2: Red Hot Chili Pibble vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $408 +$4 +1%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 07 $302 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 07 $1,218 +$11 +1%
Dota 2: Red Hot Chili Pibble vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $913 +$9 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 06 $114 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: G-Time vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $182 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $212 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $625 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $7,715 +$281 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout BUY Ivory 99¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 99¢ $259 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 99¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 99¢ $310 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 99¢ $79 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 99¢ $99 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 99¢ $34 5h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 99¢ $459 9h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $90 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 99¢ $56 17h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $25 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $103 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $343 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $66 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $15 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $18 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $61 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $98 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 99¢ $29 18h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $468 26h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 99¢ $103 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 99¢ $365 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $148 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 99¢ $148 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $155 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 99¢ $154 27h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Roar Gaming 100¢ $430 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 99¢ $376 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.07 · official $152.20 (match) · 3500 history records