Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe14…f666 world 46 markets active 10h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$10
politics 16% +$1
other 15% −$2
sports 5% +$7
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 0% -8.2%
all 46 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 2% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -8.1%
10% -17.8% 2% -16.9%
15% -25.8% 2% -24.9%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.02 per $1 lost it wins $8.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage483d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$4 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $138 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $24 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 05 $11 $0 -1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ipswich Town be relegated? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $15 $0 -2%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 03 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $52 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $55 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $54 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records