Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe13…8b9c crypto 794 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$254 (-1%) realized −$262 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%654W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$120
other 8% −$45
weather 3% −$83
world 0% −$19
politics 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 4 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 4 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 50% -2.4%
all 790 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 12% -10.2%
10% -19.9% 4% -18.7%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses654 / 136
Open positions4
Markets (closed)790 / 794
History coverage246d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $46 $54 +$8 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 13 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $39 −$4 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 12 $39 −$10 -26%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 12 $37 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 12 $39 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 12 $19 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 12 $58 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 12 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 12 $19 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 12 $39 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $25 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $69 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $15 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 12 $16 −$3 -19%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 12 $142 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 12 $18 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 12 $162 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $14 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 154d
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 155d
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 155d
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 155d
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 155d
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 155d
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.18 · official $132.18 (match) · 3342 history records