Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe12…4b28 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% $0
world 26% +$5
politics 18% $0
crypto 11% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 50% 33% -3.4%
≤90d 6 +14.8% +3.9% 50% 33% -3.4%
all 28 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 7% -7.9%
10% -21.8% 4% -16.7%
15% -29.4% 4% -24.7%
20% -36.3% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage452d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $9 +$7 +81%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 23 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $27 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $43 5h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $44 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $9 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $42 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $11 356d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 374d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $11 400d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $11 400d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $11 401d
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 402d
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 402d
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the SELL Yes 95¢ $10 403d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 4¢ $1 403d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 4¢ $0 403d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 4¢ $0 403d
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the BUY Yes 95¢ $10 403d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 403d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 403d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $24.73 (match) · 79 history records