Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe12…344a sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
sports 22% +$28
crypto 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 18% -8.2%
≤30d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 18% -8.2%
all 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 18% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 18% -8.2%
10% -15.0% 18% -17.0%
15% -23.2% 18% -25.0%
20% -30.7% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $199 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $298 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $298 −$2 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $126 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $187 3h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 4h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 7h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $82 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 24h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $71 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $144 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $144 29h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $298 33h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $298 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $295 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $77 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $221 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $299 4d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $300 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.96 · official $123.96 (match) · 25 history records