Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe12…2a29 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$509 (+15%) realized +$498 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days+$1,026
14 days+$1,158
30 days+$1,158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$410
sports 36% +$774
crypto 4% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+75.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +101.2% +82.0% 80% 80% +52.6%
≤30d 48 +93.8% +75.3% 65% 62% +37.1%
≤90d 48 +93.8% +75.3% 65% 62% +37.1%
all 48 +93.8% +75.3% 65% 62% +37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +75.3% 62% +37.1%
10% +58.5% 60% +23.9%
15% +43.2% 58% +12.0%
20% +29.2% 46% +1.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +120% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$42 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$498
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 84
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+91%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$188 +367%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $131 +$63 +48%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $21 +$236 +1147%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $10 +$61 +598%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $10 +$186 +1807%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end BUY 7¢ $51 20h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $51 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 14¢ $51 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 21¢ $51 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY 13¢ $51 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026 BUY 12¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $102 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 6¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $51 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win o BUY 7¢ $31 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye vs. P BUY 5¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay en BUY 11¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye vs. P BUY 5¢ $21 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win o BUY 7¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.37 · official $210.85 (match) · 129 history records