trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 28 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 43% | 32% | -19.1% |
| ≤30d | 28 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 43% | 32% | -19.1% |
| ≤90d | 28 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 43% | 32% | -19.1% |
| all | 28 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 43% | 32% | -19.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.4% | 32% | -19.1% |
| 10% | -34.4% | 32% | -26.8% |
| 15% | -40.7% | 32% | -33.9% |
| 20% | -46.5% | 21% | -40.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | No | 65¢ | 71¢ | $260 | $284 | +$24 (+9%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 64¢ | 74¢ | $50 | $58 | +$8 (+16%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | Yes | 58¢ | 62¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+6%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 75¢ | $47 | $51 | +$4 (+9%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | No | 47¢ | 34¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-28%) |
| Starmer out by October 31, 2026? | No | 18¢ | 8¢ | $20 | $9 | −$11 (-57%) |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Jun 19 | $90 | +$78 | +86% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $21 | −$4 | -20% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner | Jun 18 | $71 | +$44 | +62% |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Jun 18 | $52 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? | Jun 17 | $191 | +$7 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 17 | $3 | +$1 | +45% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner | Jun 17 | $10 | +$4 | +40% |
| Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? | Jun 17 | $20 | −$12 | -57% |
| Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$8 | +73% |
| Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$38 | +366% |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | Jun 14 | $13 | +$9 | +69% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $152 | −$150 | -99% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners | Jun 13 | $10 | −$9 | -86% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | Jun 13 | $20 | −$16 | -78% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner | Jun 13 | $20 | +$20 | +97% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner | Jun 13 | $13 | −$13 | -99% |
| Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner | Jun 13 | $30 | +$13 | +42% |
| Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |