Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe11…18cf sports 839 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,212 (+1%) realized +$1,953 · open −$741
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%433W / 400L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1,550est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days+$2,418
14 days−$8,791
30 days−$9,113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7,603
other 49% +$6,989
world 0% +$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +92.5% +74.1% 65% 65% +48.4%
≤30d 195 -24.7% -31.8% 32% 32% -27.5%
≤90d 833 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -9.4%
all 833 +0.2% -9.3% 52% 51% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 51% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 49% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 43% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 35% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$205 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,218
Realized+$1,953
Unrealized−$741
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses433 / 400
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,550
Open positions6
Markets (closed)833 / 839
History coverage72d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $471 $472 +$2 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $453 $459 +$6 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 21¢ 0¢ $63 $1 −$62 (-98%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 46¢ 0¢ $684 $1 −$683 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $155 +$145 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $170 +$130 +76%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $639 −$213 -33%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $5 +$3 +73%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $231 +$219 +94%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $163 +$287 +177%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$10 +138%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $260 +$190 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $88 +$94 +106%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 +$400 +791%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $297 +$153 +52%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $219 +$225 +103%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $317 +$133 +42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 −$11 -8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 −$7 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $28 −$1 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$348 +341%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $23 +$37 +163%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $142 −$7 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $95 −$9 -10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $170 +$280 +165%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $124 −$7 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 −$1 -3%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $108 −$7 -7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$35 -94%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $129 −$7 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $129 −$7 -6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$6 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $46 −$6 -13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $46 −$6 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $65 −$7 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $143 −$140 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $60 −$55 -92%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $60 −$7 -12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$7 -14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $319 −$319 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $315 −$315 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $195 −$195 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $269 −$267 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $185 −$184 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $319 −$319 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $174 −$174 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $318 −$318 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $192 −$192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $150 47m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $3 47m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $63 57m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $228 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $137 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $140 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $470 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $111 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $149 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $225 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $211 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $211 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $170 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $176 7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $219 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $70 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $29 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $9 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.27 · official $1,270.05 · 2051 history records