Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe10…4b4e other 7 markets active 11d ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-11%) realized −$15 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 159d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$9
politics 9% −$7
finance 7% −$7
economics 5% −$5
tech 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -60.0% -63.8% 0% 0% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.8% 0% -48.7%
10% -67.3% 0% -53.6%
15% -70.4% 0% -58.1%
20% -73.3% 0% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage159d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $64 $73 +$9 (+15%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call? Jan 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 28¢ $65 10d
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 158d
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 158d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 158d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 166d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 167d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 167d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 170d
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 170d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.69 · official $76.69 (match) · 10 history records