Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe10…4b1b politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+2%) realized +$114 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate83%63W / 13L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% +$26
other 9% +$51
sports 7% +$37
crypto 6% +$1
world 3% +$8
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.8% +6.6% 100% 50% +2.5%
≤30d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 54% 23% -25.0%
≤90d 17 -11.5% -20.0% 65% 35% -9.5%
all 76 +4.5% -5.5% 83% 46% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 46% -8.0%
10% -14.5% 13% -16.8%
15% -22.8% 9% -24.9%
20% -30.3% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses63 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage610d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 96¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 17 $39 +$3 +7%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 24 $11 +$1 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 21 $22 +$5 +25%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31? May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina May 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro May 09 $10 +$3 +32%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 09 $10 +$16 +163%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Mar 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jan 31 $4 +$3 +79%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $10 +$2 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 31 $20 +$2 +12%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 31 $20 +$3 +15%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Oct 26 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum close above $2600 on July 31? Oct 26 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jul 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Jul 11 $13 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18? Jul 11 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Apr 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 130-139 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25? Mar 25 $12 +$3 +24%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Feb 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Feb 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? Feb 17 $13 +$20 +153%
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? Jan 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Jan 24 $20 +$4 +20%
Panthers vs. Eagles Dec 13 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13? Dec 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Ripple above $1.69 on December 6? Dec 08 $22 +$4 +19%
Will the People's Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliament Dec 08 $39 +$1 +3%
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29? Dec 02 $40 +$2 +4%
Bears vs. Lions Dec 02 $41 +$8 +20%
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after electio Nov 26 $113 +$1 +1%
Celtics vs. Wizards Nov 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election? Nov 18 $100 +$1 +1%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22? Nov 18 $101 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $23 57m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $27 23d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $10 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 26d
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 26d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $3 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $2 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $3 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY Yes $2 35d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $39 38d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 38d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $8 38d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 38d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $12 38d
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 38d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY Vitality 94¢ $21 38d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $13 38d
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $24 38d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $10 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 86d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 86d
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina BUY Sabalenka 60¢ $20 137d
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? BUY No 86¢ $100 137d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 83¢ $10 184d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 184d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) BUY Vitality 56¢ $4 184d
Nothing Ever Happens: November BUY Yes 87¢ $10 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.73 · official $76.55 (match) · 168 history records