Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe0d…ec85 other 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$21
politics 29% −$21
sports 23% −$10
crypto 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
culture 4% −$2
finance 3% −$3
tech 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 58 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 108 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
all 126 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 108
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage101d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $446 −$4 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $58 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $625 −$3 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $281 −$2 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 15 $274 −$2 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $117 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $154 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $132 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $50 −$5 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $114 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $49 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $59 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $59 8h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 15h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 16h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $48 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $48 29h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 97¢ $57 29h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $58 37h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 38h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 42h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 43h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $55 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $63 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $63 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $56 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $14 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.20 · official $56.20 (match) · 498 history records