Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe09…8515 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%96W / 61L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day164.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$3
weather 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 46% -8.7%
≤30d 157 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 46% -8.7%
≤90d 157 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 46% -8.7%
all 157 -0.6% -10.1% 61% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 46% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 27% -17.4%
15% -26.5% 17% -25.4%
20% -33.7% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses96 / 61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)157 / 161
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day164.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.29 · official $8.29 (match) · 366 history records