trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 17¢ | 17¢ | $13 | $13 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 06 | $29 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 06 | $12 | −$1 | -6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Dec 12 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? | May 22 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? | May 13 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | May 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 06 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 25 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? | Apr 24 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Apr 23 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 22 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix? | Apr 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +15% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 40% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 43% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 43% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 54% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.6% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.1% |