Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FE 0xfe05…e16e other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+12%) realized +$68 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$48
14 days+$62
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$45
sports 13% −$3
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +16.8% +5.6% 75% 70% +3.7%
≤30d 36 +13.8% +3.0% 64% 61% +3.0%
≤90d 43 +9.2% -1.2% 65% 60% +1.2%
all 43 +9.2% -1.2% 65% 60% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 60% +1.2%
10% -10.6% 47% -8.5%
15% -19.3% 40% -17.4%
20% -27.2% 28% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 50¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $53 +$9 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 +$6 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$11 +138%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$9 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $4 +$9 +225%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +236%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $2 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $5 +$1 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $7 +$1 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $53 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $38 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 9d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.33 · official $44.33 (match) · 94 history records