Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FE 0xfe04…45cd crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$144 (-12%) realized −$113 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%28W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12
crypto 38% −$115
sports 8% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -19.9% -27.6% 22% 22% -18.0%
≤30d 63 -19.9% -27.6% 22% 22% -18.0%
≤90d 100 -26.3% -33.3% 28% 25% -24.0%
all 100 -26.3% -33.3% 28% 25% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 25% -24.0%
10% -39.7% 23% -31.2%
15% -45.5% 18% -37.9%
20% -50.8% 18% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses28 / 72
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage50d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $226 $195 −$31 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$9 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$5 -9%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $21 −$3 -17%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $72 −$9 -13%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$41 +398%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -97%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$16 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$7 +72%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $7 +$69 +961%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $53 +$119 +224%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$7 -90%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 +$6 +62%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 $0 -44%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -91%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -67%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $19 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$37 +352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$27 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 11¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $63 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 3h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 United States? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 15h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.23 · official $195.23 (match) · 337 history records