Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FE 0xfe04…a198 crypto 667 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$417 (-0%) realized −$359 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate71%469W / 193L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$269
7 days−$425
14 days−$210
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$254
tech 8% +$1
crypto 7% −$509
sports 5% +$450
weather 3% +$23
politics 2% −$6
world 1% −$334
culture 1% −$29
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 33% -18.3%
≤30d 375 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 25% -12.7%
≤90d 483 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 21% -10.8%
all 662 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 16% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 16% -9.6%
10% -21.2% 10% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 9% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses469 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions4
Markets (closed)662 / 667
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$146
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 38¢ $10 $19 +$8 (+79%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 14¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$10 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$42 +388%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$14 +146%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $49 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $36 +$26 +73%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$21 -68%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$25 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $65 +$140 +214%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9 +$15 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$12 -44%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 14 $50 −$11 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $38 +$44 +116%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 +$21 +70%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -47%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $144 +$260 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$15 +105%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $11 6m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 14¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $11 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 63¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $4 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 49¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 34¢ $9 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 52¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $10 4h
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $49 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 56¢ $5 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 57¢ $11 6h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 57¢ $25 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $10 6h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.07 · official $44.07 (match) · 3500 history records