Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FE 0xfe03…46bd other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+16%) realized +$0 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +184% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +137% what you keep after slip
Net edge+137%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$15
sports 20% +$15
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+157.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +184.3% +157.3% 100% 100% +157.3%
≤30d 2 +184.3% +157.3% 100% 100% +157.3%
≤90d 2 +184.3% +157.3% 100% 100% +157.3%
all 2 +184.3% +157.3% 100% 100% +157.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +157.3% 100% +157.3%
10% +132.6% 100% +132.6%
15% +110.2% 100% +110.2%
20% +89.6% 100% +89.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +184% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +184% · $-wt +184% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $32 $48 +$16 (+49%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$7 +180%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$8 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.83 · official $100.83 (match) · 18 history records