Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe03…3248 crypto 1028 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$3,486 (+1%) realized +$3,486 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate67%940W / 455L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14,203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -82.4% -84.1% 15% 4% -60.2%
≤30d 671 -53.4% -57.8% 42% 8% -28.2%
≤90d 1378 -26.5% -33.5% 67% 13% -15.2%
all 1395 -26.3% -33.3% 67% 13% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 13% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -23.3%
15% -45.5% 0% -30.7%
20% -50.9% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$127 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses940 / 455
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1395 / 1028
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$276
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1395 Trades
no open positions (413 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$352 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1AM ET Jun 19 $87 −$175 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 9PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$115 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET Jun 19 $136 −$273 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6AM ET Jun 19 $148 −$296 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2AM ET Jun 19 $126 −$252 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 11AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$30 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$168 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9PM ET Jun 19 $225 −$450 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET Jun 19 $238 −$475 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$8 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$39 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 19 $238 −$238 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $78 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $79 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $80 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $83 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $77 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $80 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $85 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $220 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $57 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $83 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $219 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $76 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $17 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $22 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $83 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records