Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfe02…be9d sports 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34,064 (+8%) realized +$40,946 · open −$6,882
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%255W / 191L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Fees−$4,906est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,710
other 4% +$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 234 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 45% -9.8%
≤90d 446 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 50% -6.8%
all 446 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 50% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 50% -6.8%
10% -14.8% 42% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.0% 36% -23.9%
20% -30.6% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$863) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$321 vs −$361 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$9,313
Realized+$40,946
Unrealized−$6,882
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses255 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,906
Open positions3
Markets (closed)446 / 449
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 61¢ 60¢ $7,344 $7,283 −$60 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 68¢ $2,160 $2,025 −$135 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 73¢ 0¢ $6,691 $5 −$6,687 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $658 +$182 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,557 +$393 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8,458 +$4,901 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $180 +$238 +132%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,547 −$2,547 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $427 −$242 -57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2,760 +$240 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,492 +$303 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $775 −$233 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17,110 +$1,093 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,185 −$3,185 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,333 +$667 +50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $326 −$326 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $510 +$240 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,312 +$1,226 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $969 −$947 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6,110 +$3,890 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $160 −$145 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,983 +$1,459 +74%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $53 −$12 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $238 −$238 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $173 +$327 +188%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $389 −$370 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $340 −$340 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $463 −$293 -63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,529 +$374 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $320 −$36 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $426 −$378 -89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $516 +$484 +94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $280 +$220 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5,774 −$5,774 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $347 +$153 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,927 −$2,108 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6,271 −$4,171 -66%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,206 +$25 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1,850 −$1,803 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $610 +$390 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $540 −$540 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $155 −$150 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6,800 +$3,200 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,338 −$1,338 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $82 +$168 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $79 8m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $46 8m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $7,213 8m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 90¢ $1,456 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $184 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 59¢ $150 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 74¢ $7,458 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $401 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 3¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 84¢ $840 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $650 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 89¢ $2,456 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $40 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $46 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $5 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 84¢ $418 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 36¢ $180 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 88¢ $1,113 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,312.99 · official $9,312.99 (match) · 3500 history records