Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfe00…c4f3 other 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%21W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$797per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$18
politics 35% −$32
sports 13% −$9
world 4% −$5
culture 3% −$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -12.4% -20.7% 10% 6% -10.3%
all 108 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 15% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 15% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 14% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,243) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$9 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses21 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage123d
Avg bet$797
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $525 $526 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,396 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,222 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,262 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,351 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,726 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $223 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $394 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $260 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $310 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $285 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,320 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,407 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,804 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,307 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $889 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $2,161 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $914 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 01 $496 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $2,253 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1,383 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $631 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $88 +$42 +47%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $3,136 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $457 5m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $345 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $526 27h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $652 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $653 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $809 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $810 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $768 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $769 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $866 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $868 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 12d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $664 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $665 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $850 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $851 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $682 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $683 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $259 17d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $260 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $346 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $347 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.74 · official $525.74 (match) · 366 history records