Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdff…689b sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$68 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate68%60W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$89
14 days−$267
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$98
other 34% −$132
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -23.7% -31.0% 44% 36% -18.4%
≤30d 69 -9.8% -18.4% 64% 46% -14.3%
≤90d 88 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 50% -11.8%
all 88 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -11.8%
10% -22.0% 27% -20.2%
15% -29.6% 18% -27.9%
20% -36.5% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses60 / 28
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage36d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Karolina Muchova 68¢ 100¢ $98 $144 +$46 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $11 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $136 +$45 +33%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $40 −$34 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $161 +$29 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $7 −$7 -88%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $10 −$8 -81%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$32 -65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $46 −$26 -56%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $85 −$17 -20%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +47%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 +$15 +38%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -53%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $30 +$5 +15%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 −$4 -32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +49%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 +$14 +31%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$9 -31%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $160 +$28 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 −$11 -79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $148 −$145 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $40 −$5 -11%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $55 −$32 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +110%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -75%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 +$7 +74%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $12 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $15 +$1 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $185 +$20 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $40 +$15 +37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 68¢ $100 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse SELL Emma Navarro 15¢ $12 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Emma Navarro 58¢ $50 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Iga Swiatek $6 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 47¢ $40 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $90 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $190 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $161 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens SELL Alexandra Eala $1 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $7 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 81¢ $5 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu SELL Venus Williams $2 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Venus Williams 23¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $20 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $46 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 66¢ $34 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $30 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 44¢ $20 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 64¢ $30 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 35¢ $8 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $15 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Linda Noskova 40¢ $6 4d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 59¢ $10 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $10 4d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 81¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.49 · official $172.49 (match) · 292 history records