Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdfc…288c
politics · 136 markets active 7d ago
0.0score
+$14,006 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,871 · open +$5,945
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49,617
Realized+$5,871
Unrealized+$5,945
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses56 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions33
Markets (closed)103 / 136
History coverage577d
Avg bet$2,952
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 33 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3,946
30 days−$8,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 44¢ 64¢ $10,515 $15,310 +$4,794 (+46%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 84¢ 94¢ $8,836 $9,922 +$1,086 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 56¢ $3,540 $3,954 +$414 (+12%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 34¢ $3,600 $3,449 −$151 (-4%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $2,720 $3,260 +$540 (+20%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 56¢ $2,500 $2,824 +$324 (+13%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 59¢ 67¢ $2,309 $2,611 +$302 (+13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $1,860 $1,455 −$405 (-22%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $1,203 $1,113 −$90 (-8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 44¢ 30¢ $1,320 $900 −$420 (-32%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No 48¢ 44¢ $957 $868 −$90 (-9%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 58¢ 57¢ $870 $862 −$7 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $560 $709 +$149 (+27%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $552 $576 +$24 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $489 $500 +$11 (+2%)
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No 85¢ 89¢ $425 $445 +$20 (+5%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $480 $375 −$105 (-22%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 65¢ 22¢ $649 $220 −$428 (-66%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 44¢ 84¢ $55 $105 +$50 (+90%)
California voter ID referendum passes? Yes 21¢ 42¢ $35 $70 +$35 (+99%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 63¢ 65¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No 90¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+44%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,350 +$1,650 +122%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,260 +$1,740 +138%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $500 −$500 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 03 $290 −$120 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 02 $314 −$314 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? Jun 02 $1,755 −$1,755 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 29 $174 +$426 +246%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $404 −$404 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19? May 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 29 $1,940 −$1,940 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 29 $2,086 −$2,086 -100%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 29 $1,130 −$1,130 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $9,194 −$1,044 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1,425 +$1,075 +75%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $1,050 −$75 -7%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $667 −$647 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $250 +$250 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $1,105 +$1,105 +100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $2,310 +$96 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 17 $1,501 +$1,501 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12? May 14 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7? May 11 $1,500 +$1,500 +100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 30 $887 +$609 +69%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $2,640 +$1,000 +38%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $3,057 +$2,057 +67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 21 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 21 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 21 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 20 $71 +$29 +41%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 16 $2,500 −$2,499 -100%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 15 $980 −$704 -72%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 11 $952 +$221 +23%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 10 $5,900 +$1,099 +19%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Apr 10 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 11? Apr 10 $1,020 −$49 -5%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 10 $901 +$82 +9%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Apr 08 $832 −$832 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Apr 08 $28 −$28 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $950 +$3,810 +401%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Mar 21 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $8 −$7 -94%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Feb 06 $407 +$333 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$14,533
economics 16% +$18,098
tech 15% −$1,293
other 10% −$10,661
finance 7% −$6,560
sports 6% −$1,959
crypto 0% −$363
weather 0% +$20
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 7d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 7d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $730 7d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $123 7d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 8d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 93¢ $77 8d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL Yes 17¢ $18 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL Yes 17¢ $85 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL Yes 17¢ $33 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL Yes 17¢ $34 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $3 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $20 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $119 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $18 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $16 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $8 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $62 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $20 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $274 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 78¢ $24 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of BUY Yes 29¢ $290 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $11 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $3 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $42 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $5 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 42¢ $1,226 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 42¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 28 -24.0% -31.2% 32% 29% -30.9%
≤90d 48 -18.4% -26.1% 38% 33% -23.9%
all 103 -3.2% -12.5% 54% 45% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 45% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 37% -16.8%
15% -28.5% 27% -24.9%
20% -35.5% 23% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49,617.15 · official $49,619.75 (match) · 1909 history records