Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdfa…a3b1
crypto · 137 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$63 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses36 / 97
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 137
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 4 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-64%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Shifters 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Bonk 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Gen.G Esports 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Misa Esports 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Fnatic 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs FUT Academy (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Playoffs FUT Academy 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 +$44 +437%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +102%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $4 +$5 +119%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: M80 vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoff May 01 $5 −$2 -45%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $18 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $9 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Tricked (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Close Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Damajuana - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regula Apr 28 $24 +$5 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 28 $22 −$22 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $6 +$4 +63%
Valorant: LYON vs Fuego (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: ACE Masters P Apr 27 $15 +$16 +110%
Valorant: M80 vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Apr 27 $25 +$14 +55%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Apr 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Apr 27 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs SPARTA - Map 1 Winner Apr 27 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs FUT Academy (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Apr 27 $10 −$5 -56%
Valorant: Otakar Esports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph Apr 27 $3 −$1 -19%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner Apr 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 26 $5 +$3 +66%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 26 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: T1 vs ZETA DIVISION - Map 1 Winner Apr 26 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Passion UA (BO3) - FRAG Playoffs Apr 26 $1 +$1 +72%
LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Apr 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$5
crypto 28% −$41
other 15% −$31
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 52m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 16¢ $1 13h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 40¢ $4 13h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 21¢ $2 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $21 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 11¢ $2 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 33h
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen BUY NRG Esports 20¢ $1 15d
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY GIANTX 5¢ $3 35d
Valorant: DRX vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Nongshim RedForce 10¢ $2 35d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch BUY The Last Resort 7¢ $2 37d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch BUY The Last Resort 7¢ $1 37d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch BUY The Last Resort 7¢ $0 37d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Ch BUY The Last Resort 7¢ $0 37d
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner BUY LOUD 14¢ $3 41d
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner BUY LOUD 14¢ $1 41d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 18¢ $2 41d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 18¢ $2 41d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas 18¢ $5 41d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 8¢ $4 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.1% +4.1% 38% 38% +21.1%
≤30d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 33% +19.0%
≤90d 133 -22.5% -29.9% 27% 25% -19.2%
all 133 -22.5% -29.9% 27% 25% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 25% -19.2%
10% -36.6% 23% -27.0%
15% -42.7% 23% -34.0%
20% -48.3% 21% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.22 · official $31.22 (match) · 303 history records