Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfdf9…0d61
crypto · 530 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses239 / 291
Open positions0
Markets (closed)530 / 530
History coverage137d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 530 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 42¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+138%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$53
weather 3% −$16
world 1% −$4
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +15.8% +4.8% 68% 61% -2.5%
≤30d 376 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 48% -5.0%
≤90d 482 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 40% -12.4%
all 530 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 42% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 42% -9.0%
10% -29.6% 39% -17.7%
15% -36.4% 34% -25.7%
20% -42.6% 27% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 1218 history records