Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdf1…c00d other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%56W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$34
finance 18% +$9
economics 18% −$4
world 11% +$2
crypto 9% +$9
politics 7% +$6
culture 2% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 75% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 13 +4.5% -5.5% 85% 31% -4.9%
≤90d 38 -1.2% -10.6% 82% 21% -11.5%
all 69 +3.3% -6.6% 81% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 19% -10.2%
10% -15.5% 10% -18.8%
15% -23.7% 4% -26.6%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses56 / 13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage130d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -49%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $19 +$5 +28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 01 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $7 $0 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $11 +$4 +41%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 27 $5 −$2 -39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $29 −$12 -42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 21 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 21 $12 +$1 +9%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 17 $18 −$18 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 03 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 03 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 03 $63 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $18 +$2 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $24 +$6 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 16, 2026 (ET)? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Feb 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 23 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 21 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 97¢ $7 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 98¢ $8 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $0 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $9 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $11 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 15d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $11 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $6 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 92¢ $18 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 98¢ $23 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 74¢ $5 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 74¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.40 · official $40.50 (match) · 257 history records