Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdf1…b023 crypto 712 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$166 (+0%) realized +$121 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate78%603W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day104.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$559
14 days−$785
30 days−$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$356
other 5% −$58
sports 1% +$43
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 -18.4% -26.2% 71% 15% -13.4%
≤30d 769 -11.1% -19.6% 78% 13% -11.2%
≤90d 769 -11.1% -19.6% 78% 13% -11.2%
all 769 -11.1% -19.6% 78% 13% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 13% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 6% -19.7%
15% -34.3% 4% -27.5%
20% -40.7% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses603 / 166
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)769 / 712
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day104.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $305 $350 +$45 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $255 $266 +$10 (+4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Delfino Pescara 1936 win on 2026-05-08? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-05-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Middlesbrough FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cádiz CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.15 · official $626.91 · 3500 history records