Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfdef…dda8 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$12
other 26% −$19
sports 12% −$10
crypto 8% −$9
finance 7% −$4
culture 6% −$1
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 53 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 106 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 120 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 106
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage101d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $41 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $245 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $278 +$1 +0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $341 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $54 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $63 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 03 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $68 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $106 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $223 −$2 -1%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $41 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 17h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $50 18h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $50 25h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $52 25h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $53 33h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 39h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 40h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 46h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $58 46h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $61 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $58 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $59 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $48 4d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.92 · official $49.92 (match) · 508 history records