Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FD 0xfded…4c93 other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$239 (+4%) realized +$245 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$856
14 days−$727
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$854
sports 41% −$763
world 3% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 25% -44.4%
≤30d 32 -7.6% -16.4% 44% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 49 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 45% -5.8%
all 67 -11.9% -20.2% 46% 43% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 43% -7.1%
10% -27.9% 43% -16.0%
15% -34.8% 42% -24.1%
20% -41.2% 36% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$80 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$245
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage119d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 44¢ 42¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $304 −$169 -56%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $305 +$20 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$25 -25%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$40 -39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$8 +8%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $203 −$170 -84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$323 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$323 +158%
Son Heungmin: 2+ Goals Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $204 +$385 +189%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $203 +$147 +72%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $204 +$510 +250%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $405 +$251 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$35 +70%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$84 +82%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $182 +$98 +54%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 +$18 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 +$12 +23%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$21 +208%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 35h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 41h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 41h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL OXEN 26¢ $135 2d
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 56¢ $304 2d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Nightblood Gaming 53¢ $325 2d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 49¢ $305 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $159 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $68 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 63¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $62 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $110 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $204 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 7d
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $425 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $33 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $203 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.39 · official $94.39 (match) · 107 history records