Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfded…c2ef other 88 markets active 19h ago coverage 713d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$83
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$67
politics 26% +$288
other 23% −$280
economics 6% −$49
finance 2% −$9
tech 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.4% -47.0% 12% 0% -48.8%
≤30d 11 -35.3% -41.5% 9% 0% -41.9%
≤90d 40 -22.8% -30.1% 22% 15% -9.7%
all 88 -8.2% -17.0% 32% 20% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 20% -8.2%
10% -24.9% 12% -17.0%
15% -32.2% 12% -25.0%
20% -38.8% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

713d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage713d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $82 −$41 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $41 −$32 -79%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 10 $2 $0 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $14 −$5 -35%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $32 −$31 -96%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 30 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $14 +$12 +85%
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal R Apr 24 $76 −$43 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $14 −$10 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $8 −$4 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $113 −$3 -2%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 13-16, 2026? Apr 12 $62 −$15 -24%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 12 $3 −$1 -48%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 06 $85 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $11 +$2 +19%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $224 +$50 +22%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 02 $176 +$6 +3%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $38 +$138 +360%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 21 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 15 $30 +$12 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 14 $110 +$7 +6%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 14 $124 +$14 +11%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 13 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $7 +$8 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 18¢ $7 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $7 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $9 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 4¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 4¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 9¢ $26 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 9¢ $29 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $24 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 465 history records