Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfdec…c1fd other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+13%) realized +$73 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1
sports 28% +$65
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.9% -1.4% 18% 18% +34.5%
≤30d 11 +8.9% -1.4% 18% 18% +34.5%
≤90d 11 +8.9% -1.4% 18% 18% +34.5%
all 11 +8.9% -1.4% 18% 18% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.4% 18% +34.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 18% +21.6%
15% -19.5% 18% +9.9%
20% -27.4% 18% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$3 · ×16.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 38¢ $50 $41 −$10 (-19%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+20%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $27 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $29 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $15 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $68 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.39 · official $110.39 (match) · 45 history records